EC Pelotas vs Guarani de Venancio Aires

13 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

EC Pelotas

Guarani de Venancio Aires

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.8% DRAW 24.4% AWAY 13.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.9% 1.54 DRAW 24.7% 3.80 AWAY 14.4% 6.53

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Guarani de Venancio Aires

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

EC Pelotas Guarani de Venancio Aires

Shots 10.3 · On target 3.8 Shots 13.3 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output favours Guarani de Venancio Aires, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

EC Pelotas Guarani de Venancio Aires

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 6.5

EC Pelotas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

EC Pelotas Guarani de Venancio Aires

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

EC Pelotas ↑ +0.07 (+4.8%)

Guarani de Venancio Aires ↑ +0.34 (+5.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.