FSC Feniks-Mariupol vs FC Zorya Lugansk

09 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

FSC Feniks-Mariupol

FC Zorya Lugansk

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 9.8% DRAW 21.2% AWAY 69.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 7.4% 12.70 DRAW 18.9% 5.00 AWAY 73.6% 1.29

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: FSC Feniks-Mariupol

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

FSC Feniks-Mariupol FC Zorya Lugansk

Shots 13.0 · On target 8.5 Shots 6.8 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours FSC Feniks-Mariupol, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FSC Feniks-Mariupol FC Zorya Lugansk

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FSC Feniks-Mariupol FC Zorya Lugansk

The combined recent performance profile favours FSC Feniks-Mariupol.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

FSC Feniks-Mariupol ↑ +3.45 (+37.3%)

FC Zorya Lugansk ↓ -0.03 (-1.9%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.