St George Saints vs Northern Tigers

12 Sep 2026 · 10:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

St George Saints

Northern Tigers

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.4% DRAW 27.2% AWAY 31.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.2% 2.20 DRAW 27.3% 3.48 AWAY 29.5% 3.22

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Northern Tigers

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

St George Saints Northern Tigers

Shots 8.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 10.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Northern Tigers, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

St George Saints Northern Tigers

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

St George Saints Northern Tigers

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

St George Saints ↓ -0.15 (-6.4%)

Northern Tigers ↑ +0.72 (+28.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.