Ferroviaria SP vs Paysandu

13 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

Ferroviaria SP

Paysandu

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.9% DRAW 26.9% AWAY 20.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.4% 1.85 DRAW 27.5% 3.40 AWAY 22.1% 4.24

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Ferroviaria SP has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ferroviaria SP Paysandu

Shots 18.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 15.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ferroviaria SP Paysandu

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Ferroviaria SP has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ferroviaria SP Paysandu

The combined recent performance profile favours Ferroviaria SP.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Ferroviaria SP = (0.0%)

Paysandu ↑ +0.11 (+2.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.