Paysandu vs Brusque

07 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Paysandu

Brusque

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.3% DRAW 24.4% AWAY 17.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.7% 1.68 DRAW 25.3% 3.70 AWAY 19.0% 4.94

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Paysandu relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 58.3% win probability, compared with 55.7% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Paysandu

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Paysandu Brusque

Shots 14.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 8.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Paysandu, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Paysandu Brusque

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 5.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Paysandu Brusque

The combined recent performance profile favours Paysandu.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Paysandu ↑ +0.04 (+2.4%)

Brusque ↓ -0.07 (-1.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.