Santa Cruz FC vs Botafogo PB

06 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Santa Cruz FC

Botafogo PB

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.1% DRAW 33.0% AWAY 26.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.2% 2.63 DRAW 32.6% 3.00 AWAY 30.1% 3.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Santa Cruz FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.1% win probability, compared with 37.2% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Santa Cruz FC

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Santa Cruz FC Botafogo PB

Shots 13.3 · On target 4.8 Shots 6.0 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Santa Cruz FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Santa Cruz FC Botafogo PB

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Santa Cruz FC Botafogo PB

The combined recent performance profile favours Santa Cruz FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Santa Cruz FC ↑ +0.65 (+32.8%)

Botafogo PB ↓ -0.22 (-6.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.