Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Cali

08 Sep 2026 · 03:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.8 pp

Atletico Nacional Medellin

Deportivo Cali

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 64.0% DRAW 23.1% AWAY 12.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.1% 1.64 DRAW 24.6% 4.00 AWAY 15.3% 6.44

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Atletico Nacional Medellin relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 64.0% win probability, compared with 60.1% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Atletico Nacional Medellin has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico Nacional Medellin Deportivo Cali

Shots 20.0 · On target 8.5 Shots 10.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Atletico Nacional Medellin, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico Nacional Medellin Deportivo Cali

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico Nacional Medellin Deportivo Cali

The combined recent performance profile favours Atletico Nacional Medellin.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Atletico Nacional Medellin ↑ +0.08 (+4.8%)

Deportivo Cali ↓ -0.81 (-11.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.