Northern Tigers vs St George Saints

05 Sep 2026 · 10:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.9 pp

Northern Tigers

St George Saints

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.3% DRAW 24.1% AWAY 30.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.4% 2.27 DRAW 25.1% 3.75 AWAY 33.6% 2.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Northern Tigers relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 45.3% win probability, compared with 41.4% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Northern Tigers

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Northern Tigers St George Saints

Shots 10.0 · On target 5.5 Shots 6.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Northern Tigers, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Northern Tigers St George Saints

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Northern Tigers St George Saints

The combined recent performance profile favours Northern Tigers.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Northern Tigers ↑ +0.17 (+8.1%)

St George Saints ↑ +0.10 (+3.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.