America de Cali (W) vs Independiente Santa Fe (W)

05 Sep 2026 · 22:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

America de Cali (W)

Independiente Santa Fe (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.4% DRAW 28.5% AWAY 23.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.1% 1.85 DRAW 28.1% 3.30 AWAY 21.8% 4.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Independiente Santa Fe (W)

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

America de Cali (W) Independiente Santa Fe (W)

Shots 10.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 15.0 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours Independiente Santa Fe (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

America de Cali (W) Independiente Santa Fe (W)

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 8.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

America de Cali (W) Independiente Santa Fe (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

America de Cali (W) ↓ -0.25 (-11.9%)

Independiente Santa Fe (W) ↑ +0.84 (+24.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.