Essendon Royals vs Keilor Park

11 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.2 pp

Essendon Royals

Keilor Park

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.4% DRAW 21.0% AWAY 23.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.2% 1.85 DRAW 22.5% 4.20 AWAY 26.3% 3.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Essendon Royals clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.4% win probability, compared with 51.2% implied by the market. The 4.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Essendon Royals has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Essendon Royals Keilor Park

Shots 12.0 · On target 5.8 Shots 6.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Essendon Royals, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Essendon Royals Keilor Park

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Essendon Royals Keilor Park

The combined recent performance profile favours Essendon Royals.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Essendon Royals ↑ +0.12 (+6.4%)

Keilor Park ↑ +0.05 (+1.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.