Sarpsborg vs Valerenga

06 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Sarpsborg

Valerenga

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.3% DRAW 22.1% AWAY 29.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.0% 1.93 DRAW 22.8% 4.25 AWAY 27.2% 3.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Valerenga has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sarpsborg Valerenga

Shots 17.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 18.5 · On target 8.3

Recent attacking output favours Valerenga, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sarpsborg Valerenga

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sarpsborg Valerenga

The combined recent performance profile favours Valerenga.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sarpsborg ↓ -0.07 (-3.3%)

Valerenga ↑ +0.35 (+10.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.