Estoril vs Arouca

07 Sep 2026 · 21:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Estoril

Arouca

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.8% DRAW 28.5% AWAY 30.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.7% 2.61 DRAW 28.7% 3.43 AWAY 33.6% 2.93

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Estoril relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.8% win probability, compared with 37.7% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Estoril has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Estoril Arouca

Shots 10.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 9.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Estoril Arouca

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 5.5

Estoril has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Estoril Arouca

The combined recent performance profile favours Estoril.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Estoril ↑ +0.44 (+19.3%)

Arouca ↓ -0.50 (-15.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.