Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima

08 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.9 pp

Llaneros

Deportes Tolima

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.1% DRAW 29.9% AWAY 39.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.0% 2.73 DRAW 29.9% 3.19 AWAY 35.1% 2.72

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Deportes Tolima relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 39.0% win probability, compared with 35.1% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Deportes Tolima has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Llaneros Deportes Tolima

Shots 7.3 · On target 1.3 Shots 14.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Deportes Tolima, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Llaneros Deportes Tolima

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 2.5

Deportes Tolima has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Llaneros Deportes Tolima

The combined recent performance profile favours Deportes Tolima.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Llaneros ↑ +0.03 (+1.1%)

Deportes Tolima ↓ -0.11 (-4.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.