Monagas II vs Aragua

05 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.5 pp

Monagas II

Aragua

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.8% DRAW 28.9% AWAY 40.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.1% 2.73 DRAW 29.1% 3.20 AWAY 36.8% 2.53

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Aragua relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.3% win probability, compared with 36.8% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Aragua has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Monagas II Aragua

Shots 7.8 · On target 3.5 Shots 13.5 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output favours Aragua, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Monagas II Aragua

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.5

Aragua has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Monagas II Aragua

The combined recent performance profile favours Aragua.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Monagas II ↑ +0.83 (+43.7%)

Aragua ↓ -1.17 (-31.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.