Mineros vs Bolivar SC

13 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.9 pp

Mineros

Bolivar SC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.9% DRAW 30.4% AWAY 26.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.0% 2.35 DRAW 30.5% 3.00 AWAY 30.5% 3.01

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Mineros relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.9% win probability, compared with 39.0% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Mineros has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mineros Bolivar SC

Shots 14.5 · On target 7.3 Shots 13.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Mineros, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mineros Bolivar SC

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Mineros has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mineros Bolivar SC

The combined recent performance profile favours Mineros.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Mineros ↓ -0.05 (-2.1%)

Bolivar SC ↑ +0.21 (+7.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.