Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional Medellin

10 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.2 pp

Boyaca Chico

Atletico Nacional Medellin

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 11.7% DRAW 19.8% AWAY 68.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 14.2% 6.65 DRAW 21.6% 4.38 AWAY 64.2% 1.47

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Atletico Nacional Medellin clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 68.5% win probability, compared with 64.2% implied by the market. The 4.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Atletico Nacional Medellin

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Boyaca Chico Atletico Nacional Medellin

Shots 6.8 · On target 2.3 Shots 20.0 · On target 8.5

Recent attacking output favours Atletico Nacional Medellin, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Boyaca Chico Atletico Nacional Medellin

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Boyaca Chico Atletico Nacional Medellin

The combined recent performance profile favours Atletico Nacional Medellin.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Boyaca Chico ↑ +0.73 (+12.3%)

Atletico Nacional Medellin ↓ -0.05 (-3.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.