Serrano RJ U20 vs Araruama FC U20

16 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Serrano RJ U20

Araruama FC U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.0% DRAW 27.2% AWAY 36.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.8% 2.91 DRAW 27.3% 3.50 AWAY 39.9% 2.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Serrano RJ U20 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 36.0% win probability, compared with 32.8% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Serrano RJ U20

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Serrano RJ U20 Araruama FC U20

Shots 14.0 · On target 6.3 Shots 2.3 · On target 0.3

Recent attacking output favours Serrano RJ U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Serrano RJ U20 Araruama FC U20

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.5

Araruama FC U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Serrano RJ U20 Araruama FC U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Serrano RJ U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Serrano RJ U20 ↑ +0.51 (+21.4%)

Araruama FC U20 = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.