America RJ U20 vs Sao Goncalo U20

16 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

America RJ U20

Sao Goncalo U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 51.7% DRAW 27.7% AWAY 20.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.7% 1.92 DRAW 28.3% 3.30 AWAY 23.0% 4.06

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for America RJ U20 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 51.7% win probability, compared with 48.7% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

America RJ U20 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

America RJ U20 Sao Goncalo U20

Shots 12.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 9.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours America RJ U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

America RJ U20 Sao Goncalo U20

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.0

America RJ U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

America RJ U20 Sao Goncalo U20

The combined recent performance profile favours America RJ U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

America RJ U20 ↓ 0.00 (-0.2%)

Sao Goncalo U20 ↑ +0.32 (+8.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.