Plaza Colonia vs Uruguay Montevideo

08 Sep 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Plaza Colonia

Uruguay Montevideo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.4% DRAW 29.7% AWAY 25.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.4% 2.05 DRAW 29.3% 3.25 AWAY 24.4% 3.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Plaza Colonia

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Plaza Colonia Uruguay Montevideo

Shots 8.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 5.8 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Plaza Colonia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Plaza Colonia Uruguay Montevideo

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 2.0

Uruguay Montevideo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Plaza Colonia Uruguay Montevideo

The combined recent performance profile favours Uruguay Montevideo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Plaza Colonia ↓ -0.01 (-0.3%)

Uruguay Montevideo ↓ -0.10 (-2.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.