Lanus Reserves vs Independiente Rivadavia Reserves

16 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Lanus Reserves

Independiente Rivadavia Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.7% DRAW 23.7% AWAY 18.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.2% 1.74 DRAW 24.6% 3.90 AWAY 20.2% 4.77

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Lanus Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 57.7% win probability, compared with 55.2% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Lanus Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lanus Reserves Independiente Rivadavia Reserves

Shots 11.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 8.8 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Lanus Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lanus Reserves Independiente Rivadavia Reserves

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lanus Reserves Independiente Rivadavia Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Lanus Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Lanus Reserves ↑ +0.06 (+3.6%)

Independiente Rivadavia Reserves ↓ -0.06 (-1.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.