Gimnasia LP Reserves vs San Lorenzo Reserves

16 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Gimnasia LP Reserves

San Lorenzo Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.6% DRAW 31.3% AWAY 32.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.8% 2.76 DRAW 31.0% 3.10 AWAY 34.3% 2.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gimnasia LP Reserves

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gimnasia LP Reserves San Lorenzo Reserves

Shots 13.0 · On target 5.5 Shots 8.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Gimnasia LP Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gimnasia LP Reserves San Lorenzo Reserves

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gimnasia LP Reserves San Lorenzo Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Gimnasia LP Reserves ↑ +0.46 (+20.0%)

San Lorenzo Reserves ↓ -0.54 (-16.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.