Argentinos Jrs Reserves vs River Plate Reserves

15 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.9 pp

Argentinos Jrs Reserves

River Plate Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 20.1% DRAW 25.6% AWAY 54.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 22.2% 4.27 DRAW 26.3% 3.60 AWAY 51.5% 1.84

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for River Plate Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.4% win probability, compared with 51.5% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

River Plate Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Argentinos Jrs Reserves River Plate Reserves

Shots 6.0 · On target 1.8 Shots 13.0 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours River Plate Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Argentinos Jrs Reserves River Plate Reserves

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Argentinos Jrs Reserves River Plate Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours River Plate Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Argentinos Jrs Reserves ↑ +0.77 (+22.0%)

River Plate Reserves ↓ -0.06 (-3.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.