Quilmes Reserves vs Defensores Unidos Reserves

03 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

Quilmes Reserves

Defensores Unidos Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.8% DRAW 27.7% AWAY 23.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.5% 2.02 DRAW 28.3% 3.25 AWAY 26.2% 3.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Quilmes Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 48.8% win probability, compared with 45.5% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Quilmes Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Quilmes Reserves Defensores Unidos Reserves

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.0 Shots 6.0 · On target 1.5

Recent attacking output favours Quilmes Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Quilmes Reserves Defensores Unidos Reserves

Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Quilmes Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Quilmes Reserves Defensores Unidos Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Quilmes Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Quilmes Reserves ↑ +0.08 (+4.1%)

Defensores Unidos Reserves ↓ -0.01 (-0.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.