Monagas vs Metropolitanos FC

06 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Monagas

Metropolitanos FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.8% DRAW 27.0% AWAY 28.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.6% 2.25 DRAW 27.5% 3.40 AWAY 30.9% 3.03

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Monagas relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 44.8% win probability, compared with 41.6% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Monagas has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Monagas Metropolitanos FC

Shots 15.5 · On target 5.5 Shots 11.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Monagas, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Monagas Metropolitanos FC

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 6.0

Monagas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Monagas Metropolitanos FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Monagas.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Monagas ↓ -0.30 (-11.8%)

Metropolitanos FC ↑ +0.48 (+18.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.