Paredes vs SC Maria da Fonte

20 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Paredes

SC Maria da Fonte

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 80.5% DRAW 14.2% AWAY 5.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 78.0% 1.21 DRAW 15.7% 6.00 AWAY 6.3% 15.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Paredes relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 80.5% win probability, compared with 78.0% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Paredes has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Paredes SC Maria da Fonte

Shots 16.8 · On target 7.0 Shots 9.3 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Paredes, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Paredes SC Maria da Fonte

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.5

Paredes has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Paredes SC Maria da Fonte

The combined recent performance profile favours Paredes.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Paredes ↓ -0.16 (-11.7%)

SC Maria da Fonte ↑ +6.15 (+69.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.