CD Universitario Reserves vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves

05 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

CD Universitario Reserves

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.2% DRAW 26.3% AWAY 39.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.9% 3.10 DRAW 26.5% 3.62 AWAY 42.6% 2.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CD Universitario Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 34.2% win probability, compared with 30.9% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: CD Universitario Reserves

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CD Universitario Reserves CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves

Shots 17.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 9.8 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours CD Universitario Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CD Universitario Reserves CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CD Universitario Reserves CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

CD Universitario Reserves ↑ +0.50 (+19.2%)

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.