FC Ilves vs FC Lahti

12 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.3 pp

FC Ilves

FC Lahti

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.7% DRAW 25.7% AWAY 34.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.6% 2.27 DRAW 26.1% 3.71 AWAY 31.3% 3.09

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for FC Lahti relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 34.6% win probability, compared with 31.3% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

FC Lahti has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

FC Ilves FC Lahti

Shots 8.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 14.0 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours FC Lahti, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FC Ilves FC Lahti

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 3.5

FC Lahti has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FC Ilves FC Lahti

The combined recent performance profile favours FC Lahti.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

FC Ilves ↓ -0.07 (-3.0%)

FC Lahti ↑ +0.49 (+18.8%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.