Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado

13 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.7 pp

Defensor Sporting

Deportivo Maldonado

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.6% DRAW 30.5% AWAY 40.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.3% 3.01 DRAW 30.4% 3.20 AWAY 37.3% 2.61

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Deportivo Maldonado relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.0% win probability, compared with 37.3% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Deportivo Maldonado

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Defensor Sporting Deportivo Maldonado

Shots 9.3 · On target 2.8 Shots 9.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Defensor Sporting Deportivo Maldonado

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 2.0

Deportivo Maldonado has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Defensor Sporting Deportivo Maldonado

The combined recent performance profile favours Deportivo Maldonado.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Defensor Sporting ↑ +0.17 (+6.0%)

Deportivo Maldonado ↑ +0.07 (+2.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.