Penarol Reserves vs Boston River Reserves

07 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

Penarol Reserves

Boston River Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.3% DRAW 22.8% AWAY 22.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.5% 1.74 DRAW 23.9% 3.75 AWAY 24.6% 3.65

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Penarol Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.3% win probability, compared with 51.5% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Penarol Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Penarol Reserves Boston River Reserves

Shots 12.3 · On target 6.0 Shots 10.0 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Penarol Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Penarol Reserves Boston River Reserves

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Penarol Reserves Boston River Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Penarol Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Penarol Reserves = (0.0%)

Boston River Reserves = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.