Toluca vs Monterrey

07 Sep 2026 · 03:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Toluca

Monterrey

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.5% DRAW 25.6% AWAY 26.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.0% 2.17 DRAW 26.3% 3.71 AWAY 28.7% 3.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Toluca relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 47.5% win probability, compared with 45.0% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Toluca

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Toluca Monterrey

Shots 21.0 · On target 5.8 Shots 19.0 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Toluca Monterrey

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Toluca has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Toluca Monterrey

The combined recent performance profile favours Toluca.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Toluca ↑ +0.02 (+0.9%)

Monterrey ↑ +0.19 (+5.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.