River Plate Reserves vs Boca Juniors Reserves

26 Sep 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

River Plate Reserves

Boca Juniors Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.1% DRAW 30.6% AWAY 37.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.7% 2.81 DRAW 30.5% 3.20 AWAY 34.8% 2.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Boca Juniors Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

River Plate Reserves Boca Juniors Reserves

Shots 11.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 14.5 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Boca Juniors Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

River Plate Reserves Boca Juniors Reserves

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 1.5

Boca Juniors Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

River Plate Reserves Boca Juniors Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Boca Juniors Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

River Plate Reserves ↑ +0.45 (+20.2%)

Boca Juniors Reserves = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.