Everton vs Wolverhampton

16 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Everton

Wolverhampton

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 69.4% DRAW 18.3% AWAY 12.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 68.0% 1.42 DRAW 19.2% 5.02 AWAY 12.7% 7.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Everton

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Everton Wolverhampton

Shots 17.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 15.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Everton, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Everton Wolverhampton

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Everton Wolverhampton

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Everton ↓ -0.23 (-13.9%)

Wolverhampton ↑ +2.10 (+38.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.