Botafogo vs Gremio

17 Sep 2026 · 00:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.1 pp

Botafogo

Gremio

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.9% DRAW 22.7% AWAY 17.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.8% 1.74 DRAW 24.2% 4.01 AWAY 20.0% 4.84

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Botafogo clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 59.9% win probability, compared with 55.8% implied by the market. The 4.1 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Botafogo

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Botafogo Gremio

Shots 15.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Botafogo Gremio

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 23.0 · On target allowed 6.8

Botafogo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Botafogo Gremio

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Botafogo ↓ -0.08 (-4.2%)

Gremio ↑ +0.38 (+8.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.