Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi City

23 Sep 2026 · 10:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

Machida Zelvia

Tochigi City

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 68.6% DRAW 17.8% AWAY 13.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 66.7% 1.43 DRAW 19.0% 5.00 AWAY 14.3% 6.67

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Machida Zelvia has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Machida Zelvia Tochigi City

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 8.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Machida Zelvia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Machida Zelvia Tochigi City

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Machida Zelvia Tochigi City

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Machida Zelvia ↑ +0.14 (+10.6%)

Tochigi City ↓ -0.08 (-1.2%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.