Estudiantes LP vs Rosario Central

26 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Estudiantes LP

Rosario Central

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.4% DRAW 35.4% AWAY 32.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.1% 3.17 DRAW 34.3% 2.88 AWAY 34.6% 2.85

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Estudiantes LP has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Estudiantes LP Rosario Central

Shots 14.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 12.5 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Estudiantes LP Rosario Central

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 2.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Estudiantes LP Rosario Central

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Estudiantes LP ↑ +0.53 (+20.1%)

Rosario Central ↓ -0.05 (-1.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.