Hapoel Herzliya vs AS Nordia Jerusalem

09 Sep 2026 · 19:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Hapoel Herzliya

AS Nordia Jerusalem

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.9% DRAW 21.2% AWAY 18.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.4% 1.60 DRAW 22.0% 4.31 AWAY 18.7% 5.07

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Hapoel Herzliya

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hapoel Herzliya AS Nordia Jerusalem

Shots 3.0 · On target 1.0 Shots 1.0 · On target 0.3

Recent attacking output favours Hapoel Herzliya, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hapoel Herzliya AS Nordia Jerusalem

Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 1.3 Shots allowed 2.3 · On target allowed 1.5

AS Nordia Jerusalem has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hapoel Herzliya AS Nordia Jerusalem

The combined recent performance profile favours Hapoel Herzliya.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Hapoel Herzliya ↓ -0.31 (-16.1%)

AS Nordia Jerusalem ↑ +1.87 (+58.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.