Hapoel Nof HaGalil vs Hapoel Tirat Karmel

09 Sep 2026 · 16:10

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.3 pp

Hapoel Nof HaGalil

Hapoel Tirat Karmel

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.8% DRAW 20.2% AWAY 12.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 62.5% 1.48 DRAW 22.0% 4.20 AWAY 15.4% 6.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Hapoel Nof HaGalil clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 66.8% win probability, compared with 62.5% implied by the market. The 4.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Hapoel Nof HaGalil

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hapoel Nof HaGalil Hapoel Tirat Karmel

Shots 18.3 · On target 9.5 Shots 2.3 · On target 0.8

Recent attacking output favours Hapoel Nof HaGalil, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hapoel Nof HaGalil Hapoel Tirat Karmel

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 3.5 · On target allowed 1.0

Hapoel Tirat Karmel has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hapoel Nof HaGalil Hapoel Tirat Karmel

The combined recent performance profile favours Hapoel Nof HaGalil.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Hapoel Nof HaGalil ↑ +0.03 (+2.1%)

Hapoel Tirat Karmel ↑ +0.50 (+9.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.