Independiente Rivadavia vs Atlético Tucumán

17 Sep 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Independiente Rivadavia

Atlético Tucumán

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.5% DRAW 32.5% AWAY 23.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.7% 2.20 DRAW 32.1% 3.00 AWAY 24.2% 3.98

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Independiente Rivadavia

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Independiente Rivadavia Atlético Tucumán

Shots 16.5 · On target 8.3 Shots 11.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Independiente Rivadavia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Independiente Rivadavia Atlético Tucumán

Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 7.3 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Atlético Tucumán has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Independiente Rivadavia Atlético Tucumán

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Independiente Rivadavia ↑ +0.01 (+0.4%)

Atlético Tucumán ↓ -0.38 (-8.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.