Puerto Montt vs Nublense

22 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Puerto Montt

Nublense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 24.9% DRAW 29.6% AWAY 45.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 22.3% 4.18 DRAW 28.7% 3.25 AWAY 49.0% 1.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Puerto Montt relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 24.9% win probability, compared with 22.3% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Puerto Montt

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Puerto Montt Nublense

Shots 14.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 11.8 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Puerto Montt, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Puerto Montt Nublense

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 7.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Puerto Montt Nublense

The combined recent performance profile favours Puerto Montt.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Puerto Montt ↑ +1.18 (+39.3%)

Nublense ↓ -0.25 (-11.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.