CD Antofagasta vs Deportivo Recoleta

06 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

CD Antofagasta

Deportivo Recoleta

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.3% DRAW 23.8% AWAY 16.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.1% 1.60 DRAW 25.0% 3.60 AWAY 18.9% 4.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CD Antofagasta relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 59.3% win probability, compared with 56.1% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: CD Antofagasta

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CD Antofagasta Deportivo Recoleta

Shots 17.5 · On target 6.0 Shots 6.8 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours CD Antofagasta, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CD Antofagasta Deportivo Recoleta

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Deportivo Recoleta has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CD Antofagasta Deportivo Recoleta

The combined recent performance profile favours CD Antofagasta.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

CD Antofagasta ↓ -0.13 (-7.4%)

Deportivo Recoleta ↑ +0.75 (+18.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.