Lobos UPNFM vs Atletico Choloma

13 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.1 pp

Lobos UPNFM

Atletico Choloma

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 51.7% DRAW 26.8% AWAY 21.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.6% 1.88 DRAW 26.9% 3.60 AWAY 21.5% 4.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Atletico Choloma

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lobos UPNFM Atletico Choloma

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.0 Shots 11.3 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Atletico Choloma, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lobos UPNFM Atletico Choloma

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 5.3

Lobos UPNFM has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lobos UPNFM Atletico Choloma

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Lobos UPNFM ↑ +0.03 (+1.5%)

Atletico Choloma ↑ +0.86 (+23.5%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.