Victoria Sulejowek vs Hutnik Warsaw

05 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Victoria Sulejowek

Hutnik Warsaw

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.7% DRAW 23.1% AWAY 38.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.7% 2.61 DRAW 23.9% 3.90 AWAY 40.5% 2.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Victoria Sulejowek relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 38.7% win probability, compared with 35.7% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Victoria Sulejowek has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Victoria Sulejowek Hutnik Warsaw

Shots 14.5 · On target 7.5 Shots 13.0 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Victoria Sulejowek Hutnik Warsaw

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 6.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Victoria Sulejowek Hutnik Warsaw

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Victoria Sulejowek ↑ +0.21 (+8.8%)

Hutnik Warsaw ↑ +0.05 (+2.2%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.