Arka Gdynia II vs KP Starogard Gdanski

05 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Arka Gdynia II

KP Starogard Gdanski

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.5% DRAW 19.4% AWAY 19.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.9% 1.63 DRAW 20.5% 4.75 AWAY 19.5% 5.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: KP Starogard Gdanski

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Arka Gdynia II KP Starogard Gdanski

Shots 14.3 · On target 5.5 Shots 18.0 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output favours KP Starogard Gdanski, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Arka Gdynia II KP Starogard Gdanski

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 6.5

Arka Gdynia II has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Arka Gdynia II KP Starogard Gdanski

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Arka Gdynia II ↑ +0.23 (+16.3%)

KP Starogard Gdanski = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.