Orleta Kielce vs Korona Kielce III

05 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

Orleta Kielce

Korona Kielce III

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.3% DRAW 21.0% AWAY 18.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 57.3% 1.60 DRAW 22.4% 4.10 AWAY 20.3% 4.52

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Orleta Kielce relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 60.3% win probability, compared with 57.3% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Orleta Kielce

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Orleta Kielce Korona Kielce III

Shots 14.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 9.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Orleta Kielce Korona Kielce III

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Orleta Kielce Korona Kielce III

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Orleta Kielce ↓ -0.23 (-12.7%)

Korona Kielce III ↑ +1.42 (+45.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.