Union Tarija vs Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz

05 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Union Tarija

Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.4% DRAW 20.8% AWAY 18.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 57.9% 1.60 DRAW 22.0% 4.20 AWAY 20.1% 4.61

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Union Tarija Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz

Shots 5.5 · On target 2.8 Shots 10.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Union Tarija Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz

Shots allowed 2.0 · On target allowed 1.0 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.5

Union Tarija has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Union Tarija Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz

The combined recent performance profile favours Union Tarija.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Union Tarija ↑ +0.15 (+10.0%)

Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz ↓ -0.15 (-3.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.