Toluca U19 (W) vs Cruz Azul U19 (W)

05 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.2 pp

Toluca U19 (W)

Cruz Azul U19 (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.2% DRAW 21.1% AWAY 16.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 57.0% 1.61 DRAW 22.9% 4.00 AWAY 20.1% 4.57

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Toluca U19 (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 62.2% win probability, compared with 57.0% implied by the market. The 5.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Toluca U19 (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Toluca U19 (W) Cruz Azul U19 (W)

Shots 16.0 · On target 9.8 Shots 6.8 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Toluca U19 (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Toluca U19 (W) Cruz Azul U19 (W)

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Toluca U19 (W) Cruz Azul U19 (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Toluca U19 (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Toluca U19 (W) ↑ +0.01 (+0.6%)

Cruz Azul U19 (W) ↑ +0.37 (+8.8%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.