Deportivo Independiente Mexiquense vs Colegio Once México

05 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Deportivo Independiente Mexiquense

Colegio Once México

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 73.1% DRAW 13.9% AWAY 13.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 70.6% 1.38 DRAW 15.6% 6.25 AWAY 13.9% 7.02

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Deportivo Independiente Mexiquense relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 73.1% win probability, compared with 70.6% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Deportivo Independiente Mexiquense

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Deportivo Independiente Mexiquense Colegio Once México

Shots 11.0 · On target 4.5 Shots 11.0 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Deportivo Independiente Mexiquense, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Deportivo Independiente Mexiquense Colegio Once México

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 6.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Deportivo Independiente Mexiquense Colegio Once México

The combined recent performance profile favours Deportivo Independiente Mexiquense.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Deportivo Independiente Mexiquense ↑ +0.13 (+10.4%)

Colegio Once México ↑ +0.02 (+0.3%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.