Club Celaya FC vs Tapachula Soconusco FC

06 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

Club Celaya FC

Tapachula Soconusco FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.4% DRAW 24.4% AWAY 19.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.4% 1.75 DRAW 25.4% 3.68 AWAY 21.2% 4.41

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Club Celaya FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.4% win probability, compared with 53.4% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Club Celaya FC

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Club Celaya FC Tapachula Soconusco FC

Shots 5.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 5.3 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Club Celaya FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Club Celaya FC Tapachula Soconusco FC

Shots allowed 2.3 · On target allowed 1.0 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Club Celaya FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Club Celaya FC Tapachula Soconusco FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Club Celaya FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Club Celaya FC = (0.0%)

Tapachula Soconusco FC ↑ +0.41 (+10.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.