Luziania vs Planaltina EC DF

05 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Luziania

Planaltina EC DF

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.4% DRAW 22.7% AWAY 17.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 57.7% 1.63 DRAW 23.6% 3.99 AWAY 18.7% 5.02

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Luziania

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Luziania Planaltina EC DF

Shots 3.5 · On target 1.8 Shots 1.0 · On target 0.5

Recent attacking output favours Luziania, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Luziania Planaltina EC DF

Shots allowed 2.8 · On target allowed 0.3 Shots allowed 2.5 · On target allowed 1.3

Luziania has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Luziania Planaltina EC DF

The combined recent performance profile favours Luziania.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Luziania ↓ -0.17 (-9.4%)

Planaltina EC DF ↑ +1.12 (+28.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.