Compostela vs CD Derio

09 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Compostela

CD Derio

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.8% DRAW 24.2% AWAY 20.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.5% 1.75 DRAW 24.6% 3.95 AWAY 19.8% 4.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Compostela

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Compostela CD Derio

Shots 13.0 · On target 6.0 Shots 10.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Compostela, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Compostela CD Derio

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.8

CD Derio has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Compostela CD Derio

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Compostela ↓ -0.24 (-12.4%)

CD Derio ↑ +1.34 (+34.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.